When a leader stock moves, the signal cascades through suppliers, customers, and mid-cap names over days.
Tesla (TSLA) Earnings Cascade
6 steps · 3 historical events
Cascade Flow
Tesla's delivery report is the single most-watched EV demand indicator, setting sentiment for the entire sector.
CATL is Tesla's primary LFP battery supplier; Tesla volume directly affects CATL's order book.
Panasonic derives ~70% of its battery revenue from Tesla; delivery numbers are existential for Panasonic Energy.
LG Energy supplies cylindrical cells to Tesla and reads through to broader EV demand across GM, Hyundai, and others.
BYD's own delivery data typically follows within days; Tesla trends signal whether the global EV market is accelerating or decelerating.
Lithium miners react with a lag as the market reassesses battery-cell production rates and upstream material demand.
Historical Occurrences
Trigger
Tesla Q1 2024 deliveries of 387K missed consensus of 449K — first YoY decline in 4 years
Leader Move:
TSLA -4.9% on delivery missCascade Result
CATL -3%, Panasonic -4%, LG Energy -5% over 3 days. Albemarle -8% in the week as lithium demand fears intensified.
Trigger
Tesla Q3 2024 deliveries of 463K beat 461K consensus, signaling recovery
Leader Move:
TSLA +3.2%Cascade Result
Battery makers rallied 2-4% over 2 days. Albemarle +5% as lithium sentiment stabilized. BYD reported record 443K NEV deliveries days later, amplifying the upswing.
Trigger
Tesla Q2 2025 deliveries of 520K smashed 480K consensus, new quarterly record driven by refreshed Model Y
Leader Move:
TSLA +8.5%Cascade Result
CATL +6%, Panasonic +7%, LG Energy +5% in 3 sessions. Albemarle +10% over the week as lithium restocking expectations rose.
Current Status
No active cascade detected. The next potential trigger is TSLA earnings. Monitor for guidance changes or pre-announcement signals.
First Solar (FSLR) Earnings Cascade
6 steps · 2 historical events
Cascade Flow
First Solar is the primary IRA beneficiary in solar manufacturing — 45X production tax credits apply directly to its US-based thin-film modules, making FSLR the clearest policy read-through in clean energy.
Enphase microinverters attach to rooftop solar installations; IRA residential clean energy credits drive demand for both modules and Enphase's power electronics.
SolarEdge's DC-optimized inverter systems serve the same residential and commercial solar installers; policy tailwinds read through identically to ENPH.
Sunrun is the largest US residential solar installer; strong IRA incentives reduce customer acquisition costs and boost lease economics.
Accelerating solar deployment drives battery storage co-installations, increasing lithium demand expectations; Albemarle reprices with a week-plus lag.
SQM is the world's second-largest lithium producer; energy storage demand signals reach Chilean miners after the full solar policy cascade has played out.
Historical Occurrences
Trigger
Inflation Reduction Act signed into law — $369B in climate/energy spending including 30% ITC, 45X manufacturing credits
Leader Move:
FSLR +39.6% in the week of passageCascade Result
ENPH +26%, SEDG +22%, RUN +18% in the same week. ALB +12%, SQM +10% over two weeks as battery storage buildout assumptions were revised sharply higher.
Trigger
Treasury Dept issued final guidance on 45X domestic content adders — FSLR modules confirmed to qualify for maximum bonus credits
Leader Move:
FSLR +8.4% on guidance dayCascade Result
ENPH +5%, SEDG +4% as broader US solar demand outlook improved. RUN +6% on installer margin expectations. ALB +3% over the following week.
Current Status
No active cascade detected. The next potential trigger is FSLR earnings. Monitor for guidance changes or pre-announcement signals.