When a leader stock moves, the signal cascades through suppliers, customers, and mid-cap names over days.
NVIDIA (NVDA) Earnings Cascade
8 steps · 3 historical events
Cascade Flow
NVIDIA's data-center guidance is the single most important demand signal for AI chips, HBM memory, and advanced packaging.
SK Hynix is NVIDIA's primary HBM supplier; NVIDIA's demand outlook directly dictates SK Hynix HBM revenue expectations.
Micron's HBM3e ramp is gated by NVIDIA orders; strong NVIDIA guidance validates Micron's HBM revenue trajectory.
TSMC fabricates all NVIDIA GPUs; higher NVIDIA volume means higher utilization of 3nm/5nm and CoWoS packaging capacity.
Sustained GPU demand growth implies TSMC needs more EUV capacity, supporting ASML's order backlog.
Equipment spend follows 1-2 quarters behind foundry utilization; NVIDIA strength signals future AMAT orders.
Memory capex recovery (driven by HBM demand) flows to Lam's etch-heavy memory equipment business with a lag.
Process-control spending is the last equipment budget to move, but rising complexity at 3nm lifts KLA's content per wafer.
Historical Occurrences
Trigger
NVIDIA FY24 Q4 earnings: data-center revenue +409% YoY, guided Q1 to $24B vs $22B consensus
Leader Move:
NVDA +16.4% on earnings dayCascade Result
SK Hynix +8% in 2 days, TSMC +5% in 3 days, ASML +4% over the week. SOX index +6% in 5 sessions.
Trigger
NVIDIA FY25 Q1 earnings: revenue $26B (+262% YoY), announced 10:1 stock split
Leader Move:
NVDA +9.3% after hoursCascade Result
Micron +6% next day on HBM optimism. TSMC +3%. Equipment names (AMAT, LRCX) each +4% within the week.
Trigger
NVIDIA FY25 Q4 earnings: data-center revenue $35.6B, Blackwell ramp confirmed ahead of schedule
Leader Move:
NVDA +4.2% (modest given elevated expectations)Cascade Result
SK Hynix +5%, Micron +3% on HBM3e validation. Equipment names lagged as capex timing questions persisted.
Current Status
No active cascade detected. The next potential trigger is NVDA earnings. Monitor for guidance changes or pre-announcement signals.
ASML (ASML) Earnings Cascade
6 steps · 2 historical events
Cascade Flow
ASML's EUV order book is the earliest signal of foundry and memory fab investment plans 12-18 months forward.
ASML orders confirm capex cycle strength, directly implying demand for AMAT's complementary deposition and etch tools.
Lam's etch business is tightly correlated with fab starts that ASML orders foreshadow.
Rising wafer starts mean more inspection and metrology demand; KLA benefits from increased complexity at advanced nodes.
TSMC is the largest EUV buyer; strong orders confirm TSMC's expansion plans are on track.
Samsung's foundry and memory capex plans are validated by overall industry equipment spending trends.
Historical Occurrences
Trigger
ASML Q4 2023 orders of EUR 9.2B crushed EUR 3.6B consensus — largest order quarter ever
Leader Move:
ASML +9.7% on earnings dayCascade Result
AMAT +5%, LRCX +6%, KLAC +4% within 2 days. TSMC +3% as capex cycle confirmation spread through the sector.
Trigger
ASML Q3 2024 bookings disappointed at EUR 2.6B, well below expectations; China restrictions cited
Leader Move:
ASML -15.6% (leaked a day early)Cascade Result
AMAT -5%, LRCX -6%, KLAC -4% same day. TSMC initially dipped -2% but recovered after its own strong earnings.
Current Status
No active cascade detected. The next potential trigger is ASML earnings. Monitor for guidance changes or pre-announcement signals.